When it comes to betting on NFL games, understanding the key numbers can give you an edge in your strategy. Key numbers refer to the margins of victory that occur most frequently in NFL games, and they can have a significant impact on the outcome of your bets.
For example, let’s take a look at the data on the margin of victory in NFL football games. According to the data, 15.09% of all NFL games end with a 3-point margin of victory, 3.9% for a 2 point margin of victory, and 4% with a 1-point margin of victory. This means that if you’re betting on the underdog and only getting 2.5 points, you’re banking on a 2-point or less margin of victory against you, which only provides you with a 7.9% chance of winning your bet. However, if you had that extra half point and bet on the underdog at +3, you would get the 15.09% chance of a push, the 4% probability of a 1-point margin of victory, and the 3.9% probability of a 2-point margin of victory in your favor. This illustrates the importance of the key number 3 when betting on an underdog.
It’s important to note that the percentages we’re using in this example are based on historical data and do not always reflect the actual distribution of margins of victory in a particular game. This example isn’t counting for the dog actually having that margin of victory, this is strictly historical margin of victory data and thus you shouldn’t build your model from it. However, the point remains the same: understanding the key numbers can give you an edge in your betting strategy. In an upcoming article I will outline the true numbers when against the spread and will present you with some surprising data that shows when the Money Line bet has real value compared to taking or giving the points. True value provided through historical data and some basic math.
In addition to understanding the key numbers, it’s also important to shop around for the best line when placing your bets. Sportsbooks typically require you to risk 10% more than you stand to win, so getting the best possible line can make a significant difference in your bottom line.
In conclusion, understanding the key numbers and shopping for the best line can give you an edge in your NFL betting strategy. While historical data can be helpful, it’s important to keep in mind that actual game outcomes can vary, and nothing is guaranteed in sports betting. However, by staying informed and being strategic in your approach, you can increase your chances of making profitable bets in the long run.