Some players love to bet the line early, while others swear that betting late is the only way to go. They both can bring their own advantages, but it’s only an advantage if you know what you’re looking for.
I’m going to throw out some common reasons for both Early and Late, and hopefully on your own you’ll see that it’s not about the time you bet, but about being able to take advantage of what’s being offered.
Reasons for early betting are simple. Early lines are typically the loosest, hence why most books decrease the wager limits substantially when they first release the lines. If you’re sharp you can take advantage of the fact that the book has to put the numbers out before they can do a definitive handicapping of the game. Think about all the numbers they’re putting up on a daily basis. There’s no way they can have a good read on every game. That’s why they set a low limit and let the sharp players come in early and adjust their lines for them. If you’re one of these sharp players, that’s where you get in. You might have a very good read on a particular team, or even how a particular player might perform in an upcoming situation, and if you bet early you can take advantage of that before the books begin to adjust.
When it comes to betting late, the value of the line has typically already been sucked out of the system by the sharps, and even sometimes by the public themselves. Where the advantage for late bettors comes is in the fact that they get to examine all the data before making their play. This means injuries and weather factors don’t play against them; whereas the early bettor may have gotten a great line, only to lose it because of a change of line-up or unexpected weather.
Another advantage season cappers can take when betting late is when the public is so heavy on a side that the books have to move against the sharps. So when you know where the public is going to go, and if it’s opposite of where you’re going to go, then you can just sit and wait as the line moves more and more in your favor before you hit that submit button. Typically called fading the public. Though we suggest fade harder when the books have had to move against the public. This technique in and of itself can generate serious ROI (return on investment) season in and season out.
Hopefully you can conclude on your own that it’s not really about betting early or late, it’s about getting an advantage when you bet. If you see the advantage on an early line, you hit it! If not, you wait and see if at any point moving forward you can find an advantage.
Remember, no matter the size of the wager, always search out the advantage!